Election 2017: Seat-by-seat result forecasts – BBC News

The Conservatives are looking likely to lose their overall majority, while remaining the largest party in Westminster, BBC forecasts suggest.

The Conservatives are predicted to win 318 seats, Labour 267, the SNP 32 and the Lib Dems 11. Parties require 326 seats to command a majority.

Forecasts suggest the Tories’ could end with fewer seats than when Prime Minister Theresa May called the election. Her party may be dependent on Northern Irish Unionist support to maintain its position in office.

Based on analysis of results so far by professor of politics John Curtice and his team, here are the seat-by-seat predictions. As more votes are counted, these forecasts will be updated.

The seats listed below are those where the main parties are likely to make gains or where the result is too close to call. All parties could make gains in those seats currently being described as too close to call.

Seats forecast as of 04:16 BST

Read full methodology

Forecast Conservative gains

We are forecasting one Conservative gain from those seats yet to declare. It is in Scotland.

  • Projected: Dumfries & Galloway 99% chance of a Conservative victory

Forecast Labour gains

We are forecasting two Labour gains from those seats yet to declare. One of those is in London and one in South-East England.

  • Projected: Brighton Kemptown 99% chance of a Labour victory
  • Projected: Finchley & Golders Green 91% chance of a Labour victory

Sorry, your browser cannot display this content.

Find your constituency and candidates

Enter a postcode or seat name


Forecast as too close to call

The race in a large number of seats is so tight that the result is currently too close to call. There are 28 seats yet to declare that our predictions show as being too close to call.

Seats forecast too close to call: Conservative held in 2015

  • Broxtowe, the Conservatives have a 50% chance of victory, Labour has a 50% chance of victory
  • Calder Valley, the Conservatives have a 51% chance of victory, Labour has a 49% chance of victory
  • Chipping Barnet, the Conservatives have a 59% chance of victory, Labour has a 41% chance of victory
  • Colne Valley, the Conservatives have a 56% chance of victory, Labour has a 44% chance of victory
  • Corby, the Conservatives have a 51% chance of victory, Labour has a 49% chance of victory
  • Crewe & Nantwich, the Conservatives have a 74% chance of victory, Labour has a 26% chance of victory
  • Elmet & Rothwell, the Conservatives have a 73% chance of victory, Labour has a 27% chance of victory
  • Enfield Southgate, the Conservatives have a 23% chance of victory, Labour has a 77% chance of victory
  • Hendon, the Conservatives have a 25% chance of victory, Labour has a 75% chance of victory
  • Keighley, the Conservatives have a 42% chance of victory, Labour has a 58% chance of victory
  • Kensington, the Conservatives have a 67% chance of victory, Labour has a 33% chance of victory
  • Morecambe & Lunesdale, the Conservatives have a 70% chance of victory, Labour has a 30% chance of victory
  • Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, the Conservatives have a 47% chance of victory, Labour has a 53% chance of victory
  • Preseli Pembrokeshire, the Conservatives have a 78% chance of victory, Labour has a 22% chance of victory
  • Pudsey, the Conservatives have a 50% chance of victory, Labour has a 50% chance of victory
  • Reading East, the Conservatives have a 43% chance of victory, Labour has a 57% chance of victory
  • Richmond Park, the Conservatives have a 66% chance of victory, the Liberal Democrats have a 34% chance of victory
  • Southampton Itchen, the Conservatives have a 56% chance of victory, Labour has a 44% chance of victory

Seats forecast too close to call: Labour held in 2015

  • Derbyshire North East, the Conservatives have a 43% chance of victory, Labour has a 57% chance of victory
  • Dewsbury, the Conservatives have a 42% chance of victory, Labour has a 58% chance of victory
  • Halifax, the Conservatives have a 51% chance of victory, Labour has a 49% chance of victory
  • Newcastle-Under-Lyme, the Conservatives have a 56% chance of victory, Labour has a 44% chance of victory
  • Stoke-On-Trent South, the Conservatives have a 34% chance of victory, Labour has a 66% chance of victory
  • Wakefield, the Conservatives have a 29% chance of victory, Labour has a 71% chance of victory

Seats forecast too close to call: SNP held in 2015

  • Argyll & Bute, the Conservatives have a 22% chance of victory, the Liberal Democrats have a 21% chance of victory, the SNP has a 57% chance of victory
  • Banff & Buchan, the Conservatives have a 57% chance of victory, the SNP has a 43% chance of victory
  • Edinburgh South West, the Conservatives have a 48% chance of victory, Labour has a 21% chance of victory, the SNP has a 31% chance of victory
  • Fife North East, the Conservatives have a 35% chance of victory, the Liberal Democrats have a 45% chance of victory, the SNP has a 20% chance of victory

Methodology

Analysis for this page is carried out by professor of politics John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, and his team.

The BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll is conducted by asking a random sample of voters at one of 144 polling locations scattered around the country to complete in private a mock ballot paper to indicate how they just voted.

Nearly all the locations are ones in which the 2015 exit poll was also conducted. The share of the vote recorded for each party at each polling location this time around is compared with the share obtained in the 2015 exit poll in order to derive 144 estimates of change in support for each party.

These estimated changes in vote share are then statistically modelled to (i) ascertain any systematic geographical variation in the estimated changes in vote shares, and (ii) derive estimated vote shares for every party in every constituency in Great Britain.

From the latter, the probability as to which party will win each seat is derived. For each party the exit poll forecast of seats won is the sum of these probabilities of winning across all constituencies.

Once declarations begin, forecasts are then based on a combination of exit poll and real results.

More From this publisher : HERE